Bankruptcy prevention and crisis management on the example of "Kirov Plant "Mayak"

Profit and loss statement 6 months in 2011.

Independent evaluation of the financial performance of state:

Z = 0,033*X1+0,268*X2+0,045*X3 - 0,018*X4 - 0,004*X5 - 0,015*X6+0,702*X7

Z= 0,033*10,724+0,268*1,279+0,045*1,853 - 0,018*0,539 - 0,004*(-0,597) - 0,015*1,492+0,702*0,546=0,353892+0,342772+0,083385 - 0,009702 - (-0,002388) - 0,02238+0,383292=1,133647

According to the model (2), according to my calculations, the value of Z (financial assessment) to gain more 1.104, in my case Z = 1,133647, which suggests that I have chosen the company is in good financial condition, and the likelihood of bankruptcy is low

Conclusion

In summary, I can say that the analysis of the probability of bankruptcy takes the value of one of the main regulators that firms use as a medium impact on the financial processes in the enterprise. There are many methods for estimating the probability of bankruptcy. The company needs to choose one or combine several reasonably existing methods to get a picture of the company's solvency. [9]

In its analysis of bankruptcy can identify the reasons for a possible bankruptcy, in order to avoid in the future. The reasons may be, as mentioned above, the decline in sales due to poor demand study, no distribution network, advertising, reduced production, unnecessarily high costs, low profitability of products; excessive production cycle, large debts, mutual non-payments, etc. etc.

Among other things, I have outlined promising methods for assessing reliability and solvency of counterparties, particularly in the current Russian conditions where the counterparty is often dependent on the financial stability of the enterprise

Therefore important to know the company accountant and the basis of calculation of solvency analysis of the likelihood of bankruptcy, as well as the regulatory framework governing the issues of bankruptcy.

Footnotes

1. monitoring, systematic collection and processing of information, which can be used to improve the decision-making process, as well as, indirectly, to inform the public or directly as feedback tool for the implementation of projects, program evaluation or policy.

2. correlation-linear function relationship between two or more random variables (or values that can be with some reasonable degree of accuracy considered as such). In this case, change the values of one or more of these values are accompanied systematically changing the values of one or several other variables

3. intragroup variance - reflects random variation, ie part of the variation that occurs under the influence of unaccounted factors and independent of the sign factor, form the basis of the group.

5. cash ratio, describes the company's ability to repay the current (short-term) liabilities with cash, money in banks and short-term investments.

6. cross-analysis is a comparison of the two types of analysis, technical and fundamental together.

7. Recession-term means relatively mild, non-critical recession or a slowdown in economic growth.

8. capitalization transform means (part of the net profits, dividends, etc., or all profit) in additional capital, additional factors of production (such as the means of labor, objects of labor, labor, etc.), which results in a increase in the size of their own funds.

9. liquidity and economic term for the ability of the assets to be sold quickly at a price close to the market.

10. inventory turns, characterizes the mobility of funds that the company invests in stocks: the faster the money invested in stocks, returned to the company in the form of proceeds from the sale of the finished product, the higher business activity of the organization

11. accounts receivable turnover ratio of revenue from sales to the average amount of accounts receivable, net of allowance for doubtful position.

12. trend direction indicators of way.

13. volatility of financial and statistical measure of the variability of prices.

Bibliography

1. Yuri Danilov. "Financial Management" // Problems of the theory and practice of management. International Journal 9/2009g. // www.uptp.ru page: 65, 66, 67, 68.69.

2. AE Krioni. "Management in Russia and abroad" // January-February 2009. // www.finpress.ru page: 94, 96, 97.

3. AV Matveichuk №4 (43) 2008. Moscow. page: 90.91.

4. Ed. prof. BN Chernyshev, prof. VJ Gorfinkel // Economy organizations (companies, firms) - Moscow: college textbooks 2010. page: 517, 520, 508.

5. NN Kozhevnikov, E. Borisenkov, AG Zubkov, etc. // Basics of crisis management companies: High. Textbook. benefits. for stud. High. Textbook. institutions - the second edition, sr. - M.: Publishing. center "Academy" 2007. page: 27.82.

6. OI Volkov, VK Splyarenko. // Housekeeper enterprises // Lectures - Moscow: Ifrane-M, 2005. pp. 267, 268, 269.

7. http://www.kzmayak.ru

8. http://otherreferats.allbest.ru/economy/00027215_0.html

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