Bankruptcy prevention and crisis management on the example of "Kirov Plant "Mayak"

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Contents

bankruptcy business management plant

Introduction

1. Bankruptcy risk of Russian small businesses and methods its prevention

1.1 Recognition Method of fictitious and deliberate bankruptcy

1.2 Discriminant model diagnostics bankruptcy

1.3 Bankrupt companies: the problem of predicting

1.4 The main methods of preventing bankruptcy

1.5 Anti-crisis management activities of enterprises

2. Analysis of OJSC "Kirov Lighthouse" on the subject bancruptcy

2.1 General characteristics of OJSC "Kirov Plant "Mayak"

2.2 Calculation of the probability of bankruptcy as a discriminant function

Conclusion

Footnotes

Bibliography

Introduction

The Institute of insolvency (bankruptcy) is an integral part of the legal system of some country with a market economy. Issues related to the inability to pay the goods delivered, services rendered, to return the money borrowed from loan shark, emerged almost simultaneously with the emergence of commodity-money relations.

Throughout its history, mankind has studied the market and the possible patterns, it has learned to build various models and improved. However, despite all the actions to market forecasting, market research, this problem plagued humankind and now.

It's no secret that the market is constantly come and go all sorts of legal and natural persons engaged in activities designed to profit from the use of property, sale of goods, works and services. These market actors are constantly interacting, come in all sorts of relationships. An integral part of the system of relationships is the failure of one or more parties to fulfill their obligations, that this is the entire business risk.

Despite the development and improvement of the system of management, diversity of ownership, all legal systems lead to a very simple conclusion - the debts must be paid. But how to pay the debts, what should be done for the most complete performance of the obligations of the debtor - is the most controversial issue.

It is believed that the word "bankruptcy" came from medieval Italy (bankarupta), apparently formed from either the bank broken, either from the bench broken (clients were turning the table on which the unfortunate merchant to change money on the area or just traded).

The implementation mechanism of bankruptcy practice of foreign countries began with the time when the debtor's insolvency came as slaves to their creditors. Over time, this loss of freedom gave way to public punishment. Began to consider the degree of guilt of an insolvent debtor in accordance with the specification of the quality characteristic or actions that led to this result.

French law concept of "failure" applies only to merchants, so for those non-trade occupations provisions on bankruptcy does not apply. In German law may be the subject of any bankruptcy debtor ceased payments and covered by the competition. In Sweden, there is responsibility of the debtor who commits acts leading to insolvency, when it in any way deprive a substantial part of its property, with the result that is either insolvent or significantly impairs their ability to pay. In the U.S., the person against whom a bankruptcy, while production is insolvent, and after a judgment may be declared bankrupt.

The Russian legal history there are various definitions of the insolvency and bankruptcy. Of greatest interest is the pre-revolutionary period, as the level of Russian law at the time estimated highly enough.

Some consider bankruptcy careless or intentional infliction of harm insolvent creditors by reducing or concealing property. That is, in order that the person was declared bankrupt, are necessary aggravating circumstances. [6]

In modern Russian legislation the term "insolvency" and "bankruptcy" of equal value (in this case does not imply intentional fictitious bankruptcy). Apparently, this is not the right approach, as the legal technique should take into account well-established content phraseological systems and traditions of their legal use. Even if we take into account the perception formed the word "bankruptcy", it would be better to use a combination of the American version of insolvency and bankruptcy.

Common signs of bankruptcy legislation in various European countries are insolvent, the increase in accounts payable, unprofitable transactions or use of property. As the world practice, bankruptcy - the inevitable phenomenon of any today's market, which uses the failure as a marketing tool of redistribution of capital.

In the history of modern Russia from the beginning of market reforms were adopted federal laws governing bankruptcy. The need to improve bankruptcy law led to the adoption Federal Low №127 "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)" from 26.10.2002. The Act applies to all legal entities, with the exception of state-owned enterprises, institutions, political parties and religious organizations.

Insolvency (Bankruptcy) of enterprises refers to the arbitration court recognized the debtor's inability to fully satisfy the claims of creditors on monetary obligations and (or) to fulfill the obligation to make required payments.

The Law specifies the following test for the bankruptcy of a legal entity: the inability to satisfy the demands of creditors' and (or) to fulfill the obligation to make mandatory payments if the relevant obligations and (or) the obligation is not fulfilled them within three months from the date when they are to be executed.

The new law does not specify the minimum amount of monetary obligations and mandatory payments required to appeal to the tribunal to declare bankrupt the organization. The composition and amount of monetary obligations and mandatory payments required to initiate bankruptcy proceedings, will be determined by the arbitral tribunal.

The state of the bankrupt companies identified the above-noted features, to be distinguished.

* fictitious bankruptcy - a deliberately false declaration enterprise having the opportunity to meet the requirements of the purpose of misleading lenders to get them to delay or deferred payment or discount the debt;

* deliberate bankruptcy - intentional creation or increase of insolvency of the company manager or owner, the damage caused by them to the enterprise for personal interests or interests of other persons known incompetent business management.

In these cases, a measure of responsibility for the admission of bankruptcy is established in accordance with the Criminal Code of Russian Federation. Should not be used to temporarily insolvent company measures of bankruptcy, because bankruptcy - an exceptional measure in relation to the debtor, are not capable of overcoming the protracted crisis of non-payments. [1] Based on this we can conclude that the bankruptcy of the enterprise - this is strictly a certain state of insolvency, in which its assets could be made recovery by creditors.

1. Bankruptcy risk of Russian small businesses and methods its prevention

The specifics of the domestic economy of small businesses has an impact on the diagnosis of bankruptcy. More recently (August 2008), the question of the risk of insolvency complicated crisis of the world financial system.

The main purpose is to provide the results of a systematic exposition and extract the essential guidelines.

It should primarily, to raise the question: what exactly are we going to predict (forecast). It is believed that the bankruptcy and insolvency in the enterprise - interchangeable. This is false. Bankruptcy occurs together with an established insolvency of the debtor, and the failure - the result of the impossibility of fulfilling the demands of creditors current liabilities. Federal Law "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)" №127-FZ, which came into force on October 26, 2002., Pays much attention to the prevention of bankruptcy.

But the legislator envisaged measures are aimed, above all, to overcome temporary financial crisis. In case of default, we can only speak of a time of economic crisis (a situation where the material resources of the company are used inefficiently) and crisis management (inefficient use of human resources, which often means low as competence management and, therefore, inadequate management decisions environmental requirements). It was only as a result of self-government or self-serving assumptions above insolvency crisis acquires features intentionally or fraudulent bankruptcy - an intentional criminal act.

Fictitious bankruptcy is a case where the debtor declares himself bankrupt, but he has the ability to satisfy the claims of creditors-create a full, that is, so this statement is obviously false . Deliberate bankruptcy is that the head of the organization or its founders in someone's personal or other interests deliberately make the company insolvent. Both types of failures are bound by similar goal pursued in bad faith by the debtor. Misleading lenders with an ax to grind, criminals can get respite from creditors (installments) payments or tax relief, and at best case for attackers and did convey liquid assets "friendly company" significantly worsened the economic situation of the creditor.

It is assumed that due to the substitution of the economic indicator "inconsistency" legal term "bankruptcy" bankruptcy prediction methods, which are designed to predict the different types of insolvency were not applicable in cases of "unfriendly" the debtor to creditors.

But, if not a huge number of different models of diagnosis, then at least the integrated use will provide a clear and objective index to make an unambiguous conclusion to the lender in respect of the economic state of the future business partner. But the paradox, none of the known methods are not able to give accurate information about the condition or developmental disabilities study enterprises. Some relations suggest bankruptcy, while others assure the financial stability of the company.

The main reason for this discrepancy in the results was the same "domestic specifics", which does not allow to use the tools of financial statement analysis to Russian enterprises.

Reasons for the inapplicability of bankruptcy prediction models are not so much. F First, small business enterprises in most cases opaque.. Such companies often lack competent financial accounting, which excludes an objective assessment of the financial and economic activities. Second, this special tax regimes. For example, according to the Tax Code of the Russian Federation (TC) for a number of organizations provided the simplified tax system (STS). In this case, a complete statistical monitoring of the financial status of a simplified tax system is impossible, since the object of the analysis will be two lines: income and expenses. Organizations that use the simplified taxation system listed above set of models to predict bankruptcy will be untenable. Third, it is an opportunity for small businesses in completing the balance sheet and income statement to reflect the data only for groups of articles without further explanation.

Fourth. An essential object of predicting the risk of bankruptcy is the financial statements of the enterprise. But consumers of financial information companies can use various sources of its receipt. For the financial manager of the business, as well as for the owner, to make an accurate prediction, and thus reduce the risk due permissibility and all-sufficient background information does not present any difficulty. For counterparty (the creditor), the situation is the opposite - the study or analysis of materials monitoringa1 diagnosis verge of bankruptcy occurs, with limited or no information.

Thus, the current state of accounting, which allows the entrepreneur does not display incoming key financial indicators of the company, making the task of predicting the risk of bankruptcy of the traditional models applied to domestic practice impossible.

The main drawback of existing models to predict the risk of bankruptcy - their dependence on a large number of incoming targets. Each indicator is a function of a large number of parameters, and a small change (or lack thereof) implies completely distorted result. The result is the ability to manipulate the values of parameters [2].

1.1 Recognition Method of fictitious and deliberate bankruptcy

Based on practical results, the analysis of Russian companies - the "gray bankrupt" can assume a number of signal points, clearly indicating the real financial position of the future financial partner. The proposed method for recognition of fictitious and deliberate bankruptcy is in development and in addition Interim validation rules liquidator signs of fake and deliberate bankruptcy. In the analysis of the following actions:

1. Search for signs of deliberate bankruptcy through visual examination of the complex accounting. Detection inconsistencies and violations of the treaty, and other primary documents. Documents that many inconsistencies, includes not only signs of deliberate bankruptcy, but the presence of large amounts of abuse by an organized group of people interested in the liquidation of the enterprise, in order to avoid liability.

2. Calculation of the index of financial integrity (Cif)

Here are the factors that will be the signal for the calculation Cif: 1) total balance, and 2) the authorized capital, and 3) the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, and 4) the period of financial statement analysis, and 5) wages, and 6) the number of employees working in the enterprise, and 7) organization's life cycle, 8) leases. These indicators have an unquestionable advantage - they are always available, their presence is fixed by the legislator, and some of them can be obtained from government policy. Thus, the lender along with the owner of the company gets investigated same sufficiency financial instrument for the analysis of the bankruptcy risk of the latter.

Up the balance. Or balance sheet. Or total assets. Practical activities of the company in the aggregate is expressed, above all, money, taxes, the budget, financing and investment. In part, this is - the result of economic activity, expressed in resources controlled enterprise. Displayed by the company itself, not only through appropriate rules and orders of the state.

Share capital. Financial entity authorized capital - in a continuous redistribution of money form of value, and their reproduction. Distribution begins to appear on the stage of the creation of authorized capital and ongoing business activities in a commercial structure. The main source of capital acts working capital (or part) of the founders, shareholders. Proper application and use of capital contributes to the successful formation of equity management. The greater the value of equity (at constant capital), the greater the financial resources of the company, the more efficient movement of value and higher capitalization of the company is. As its own, the registered capital should be shown on the balance sheet. Legislator established a uniform size of the original property of the foundation of society, guaranteeing the rights of the creditor - the parties interested in the objective assessment of business risks. The provisions of Article 26 of the charter capital secured the Companies Act, Art. 14 of the Federal Law №14-FZ and commit to provide the authorized capital of no less than 100 times the amount of the minimum wage. It remains to find a certain satisfaction, which in most part will determine the amount of equity capital of the organization, to provide "self-expansion" originally advanced the cause of the cost. This problem is partially solved by bringing to account other indicators - rate of the Central Bank of Russia.

Rate of the Central Bank. The formation and use of financial resources of almost all enterprises are inextricably connected with the movement of the loan fund and a form of motion, as bank interest. With a lack of background information (often its complete absence) more fully the principle of "self-expansion" finance company will be responsible to use rates of the Central Bank. It is known that the discount rate used to calculate the tax base for certain taxes, interest and calculate a different percentage. This option was included in the calculation of the risk of bankruptcy by analogy with §5, Art. 65 of the Tax Code. Code requires organizations that have received a tax credit due to the threat of bankruptcy, to pay interest on the loan, based on the refinancing. Refinancing amount of the authorized capital, the estimation of their own means of production, which in turn gives the right, without recourse to the financial statements summarize the self-expansion of the financial resources of the enterprise over time.

Period of financial statement analysis - the number of months in the period. The familiar 12-month deadline, the only period for which the State Statistics Committee of Russia presents statistical information on the finances of the organization. The choice period substantiate typical small business uneven sales revenue, as well as the almost complete lack of coincidence of the time, the cost of production over time, implementation of production. This is especially the situation for entrepreneurs in the agricultural sector.

Fixed costs.

Production growth of the economy is directly related to the planning, monitoring and control costs. In foreign practice is widely used technique which allows to track the progress of operational planning dependence of financial results of the production costs and sales volumes. Such an analysis allows us to trace the chain of indicators "costs - sales - profit," said operational analysis. Various costs behave differently depending on the economic activity of the enterprise. Exposing this relationship, the lender is able to predict the risk of bankruptcy, based on the theory of formation expenses management. If in the general case, the calculation of variable costs for obvious reasons almost impossible, the constant (fixed cost) and semi-variant costs amounting to almost no change, and can be counted on the basis of statistics. Knowing the value of fixed costs, the researcher can assume the force of impact of operating leverage (GRA). For businesses, having to balance the relatively large number of under-utilized fixed assets, high operating leverage power, is dangerous and shows the high level of business risk business.

Well-known researcher of fixed costs can include costs of the company on rent, pay for electricity, telephone and wages. Is closest in meaning to the concept of "wages" living wage working people. Procedure for calculating the cost of living is set by the Law №134-FZ. Is selected as the factor, workers, members of the government and members of society (if any) just can not be lower than the minimum set by federal law.

Another factor used in the calculations, the number of employees in the company. In surveys, the organization - legal entities collecting information on employment researcher holds the following categories of workers: the scheduling of employees, external Combine and employees performing work under civil law nature. Source of information on the number of payroll employees in settlements in an average year are: card of the object registry and extract from the Unified State Register of Legal Entities. Information on the number of part-time and external employees performing work under the contract of civil nature, is formed according to the current observation.

In assessing the bankruptcy is particularly important factor in the life cycle of the organization. In management theory the concept of "life cycle of the enterprise" to determine the various issues that arise during the entire period of its development, and thus evaluate its investment appeal. This statement implies a clear dependence of the period of the life of the enterprise value of the profits. One of the factors is based on the existing theory of audit in a similar concept - "going concern assessment of the organization." From the point of view of the auditor - an assessment that the entity continues as a going concern, and he has no need to eliminate or significantly reduce the activities and obligations will be repaid in due course. Binding evaluation of bankruptcy risk to the life cycle of the evidence of stability, sustainability, and perhaps about the economic growth of the enterprise. The longer a company is on the market, the lower the probability of bankruptcy at any given moment. In analyzing this factor, you can get information about the alleged sufficiency of the organization to meet obligations and formation of resources for further development. Date of registration provides a statistical business register in the Russian State Statistics Committee Report Cards object register. The average age of the life of small industry can be estimated on the basis of the balance sheet on the date of registration.

Small business (SB) in Russia is about 20 years. Since 1991, have repeatedly changed the criteria and conditions of business for companies of this sector. Consequence - the difficulty in analyzing the financial statements of key performance indicators of the (IP).

Use indicators to assess the RB - the result of the balance or the total assets of the company, SC- share capital, RBR - the rate of the Bank of Russia, A - Age of the company in years, W - wages, N - the number of employees in the company, T - period analysis of the financial statements months, and R - rent, FC - fixed costs per year. These factors characterize the state of the qualitative aspects of small business, as well as a direct effect on an indicator such as the probability of bankruptcy. The general formula for determining the index of financial Cif particular would be:

Cif = RB + { SC + (RBR Ч A) + ((W Ч N) Ч T + R)}

or (1)

Cif = RB ч {SC + (RBR Ч A) + FC}.

In this case, the scale of the risk assessment of insolvency of the enterprise may be:

* If Cif < 0, the probability of bankruptcy is high;

* If Cif ? 0, then the probability of bankruptcy is equal to 0.5;

* If Cif > 0, the probability of bankruptcy is low and decreases with increasing.

The problem can be solved only on the basis of analytical procedures. This approach assumes that the transition from the financial analysis, which considers only the last activity of the organization, to the analysis, aimed at the future, the evaluation of possible adverse effects in the organization. This approach complies with the concept of the accounting and reporting for the medium term.

To construct an index of financial probity sources of information support for the risk of bankruptcy is proposed to use three documents: the balance sheet and profit and loss account; card account register object presents statistical business register (Stratregistr) as an extract from the Unified State Register.

Based on the model calculations showed that, although the method and gives a very rough estimate of the probability of bankruptcy, its practical application is possible.

There are some pretty effective forecasting techniques that are well suited for the domestic business, it is this. [2]

1.2 Discriminant model diagnostics bankruptcy

In order to reduce risk in decision-making financial institutions developed countries are widely used technology of formation, detection and recognition of economic phenomena. A prerequisite of this approach is the assumption of the existence of indicators that can not be observed directly, but can be estimated from the observed several factors. For example, working capital, total assets, liabilities, net income, etc. can define output indicators such as the risk of bankruptcy. For the evaluation of the possibility of bankruptcy was the distribution companies into two classes - the potential bankrupts (companies that went bankrupt shortly after the declaration of the financial statements) and the well-functioning of the company - to determine the inherent characteristics of the classes and the specific values of the financial and economic indicators.

The problem of forecasting bankruptcy, resolved Altman, based on 33 pairs of companies (bankrupt and stable companies) resulting in a linear correlation equation funktsii2 that describes where the discriminant boundary between these two classes of businesses.

For the construction of the discriminant model diagnostics bankruptcy must select a number of the financial statements. In an analysis of a selected combination of indicators and for each, the weight in the discriminant function. Magnitude scales show a different impact on the value of individual indicators efficient variable that in the integral describes the financial condition of the company. The problem is to select a set of indicators are those that will give the opportunity to make the most significant conclusions regarding the potential financial condition of the company.

As a criterion for the selection of indicators in the discriminant model was chosen generalized discriminant criterion Wilks's lambda Lw, characterizing the degree of variation of the independent variables with their inter-group comparison. For the purposes of discriminant modeling begging financial performance, estrangement between the averages of the enterprises of different groups of maximum and intra dispersiya4 - minimal. To ensure a clear separation between similar groups of enterprises in the discriminant model best include indicators with a minimum of Lw.

Thus, to construct the optimal model using stepwise selection method of the independent variables. It lies in the fact that on the basis of comparison of different combinations of indicators and selected model, which is characterized by the lowest value of Wilks's lambda (the highest level of classification accuracy), in the absence of multicollinearity in the set outside factors. As a result, the algorithm selection of indicators for model diagnostics bankruptcy consists of the following stages.

First, on the basis of available data from the financial statements of financially sound enterprises and potential bankrupts count values ??of selected indicators covering various aspects of operations. Although such important indicators as profitability ratios and profitability were not included in the model because they are calculated on the basis of the indicator "net income", which for most businesses is zero. As for the coefficient of absolute liquidity, its use has also been limited by the exhibiting companies in their reporting zero readings "cash and cash equivalents". Due to non-borrowed funds in most companies could not be widely used such factors as: cover debts equity, concentration and the ratio of funds raised and equity.

This is followed by calculation of t-tests between each pair of explanatory variables. These calculations are compared to the table value of t-distribution for a given level of dependence by checking the accuracy of the classification model with data rates using the criterion Wilks's lambda. As extra screening indicators in the analysis of the model parameters will be reduced accordingly and the value will change the degree of freedom. After sifting pairs of correlated indicators inspect the remaining members of the factors to multicollinearity with the use of F-test. After the exclusion of all the factors contributing to the model multicollinearity, perform one more test set input variables using the criterion ч2.

The analysis selected set of input factors of the model, which cover all the main groups of indicators of enterprises have a high ability to predict a possible bankruptcy and lack of multicollinearity, which will ensure stable operation of the model. The result is a model estimating the probability of bankruptcy as a discriminant function on the basis of the set of explanatory variables (Table number 2):

Z = 0,033 * X1 +0,268 * X2 +0,045 * X3 - 0,018 * X4 - 0,004 * X5 - 0,015 * X6 +0,702 * X7 (2)

If using a model (2) to assess the financial condition of the company obtain the value Z, which is greater than 1.104, this is evidence of a satisfactory financial condition and the low probability of bankruptcy.

The higher the value of Z, the more stable position of the company. If the value of Z for the company was less than 1.104, there is the threat of a financial crisis. With the decrease of the indicator Z increases the probability of bankruptcy of the analyzed company. [3]

Table№2:

Independent evaluation of the financial performance of state:

Index	Factor	Ratio
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7	Mobility assets Werewolves payables Werewolves equity Return on assets Working capital Concentration of capital raised Cover debts equity	Current assets / Non-current assets Net income from sales / Current liabilities Net income from sales / Equity Balance / net income from sales (Current assets - current liabilities) / Current assets (Non-current liabilities Current liabilities +) / Balance (Non-current liabilities Current liabilities +) Equity / (Provision for future expenses and payments + Long-term liabilities + Current liabilities) / Balance

1.3 Bankrupt companies: the problem of predicting

One major problem of bankruptcy prediction is that the models that use cross-sectional analysis, based on the assumption of stationarity in time of the bankruptcy process

Confirmation of nonstationarity of the data used in forecast models, is the fact that the number of bankruptcies increases dramatically during economic recessions

To improve the predictive accuracy of the models, especially in the early stages of the bankruptcy process, it is necessary to apply the transformation of financial indicators and multivariate logit

Currently there are many studies on the prediction of bankruptcy of companies. To identify companies that are potential bankruptcy, the authors of most studies tend to rely on the results of cross-sectional analysis of their financial performance.

One major problem of bankruptcy prediction is that the models that use a cross-sectional analysis, based on the assumption of stationarity in time of the bankruptcy process. However, this assumption is often violated, so often, these models allow us to classify the company after they went bankrupt or non-bankruptcy. As a result, it is impossible to make an accurate forecast of the future financial performance of the company.

The question of non-stationary data have been directly investigated by R. Moyer. He applied the model of Altman, based on the data on the companies for years 1946-1965., To classify companies according to data for 1973 he 1970. Initial accuracy of the model Altman is 95%, dropped to 82%. When this model was tested on data from 1965-1975., Its accuracy was 75%. Re-calculation of the coefficients of the original model Altman on more recent data would enhance its accuracy to 90%.

Confirmation of nonstationarity of the data used in forecast models, is the fact that the number of bankruptcies increases dramatically during economic recessions. The authors of studies on the prediction of bankruptcy of companies, usually come to the conclusion that the bankruptcy of companies do not arise suddenly, usually preceded by a sufficiently long period of deteriorating, so it can accurately predict at least three years of actual bankruptcy. But if it affects only internal to the company are considered, it would be impossible to explain the dramatic increase in the number of bankruptcies of companies during retsessii7. One possible explanation for the unpredicted rapid growth is that the bankruptcy model correctly identified only the most common internal characteristics inherent weak companies. These characteristics indicate that the status of the company is close to bankruptcy.

The actual bankruptcy and the period over which it takes place, in addition to internal factors depend on specific economic events (external to the company), which aggravate the situation. This suggests that the predictive ability of even the most accurate predictive models will be different at different periods of time as the external economic environment is affecting the state of the company, changes with time. Examples of such external macroeconomic factors may be inflation, interests rates and availability of credit, the phase of the business cycle (recession, elevation). As a result, different rates will be more or less important at different times depending on what economic events trigger bankruptcy.

Changes in the level of inflation may lead to higher production costs, which in turn lead to higher prices for the products and reduce demand. Identify companies that are sensitive to an increase in the rate of inflation, will help measures such as stock levels, profitability, return on assets, capital intensity.

During periods of high interest rates, or unavailability of loans, bankruptcy often caused by excess of the cost of debt repayment profit from the sale. In this context it is useful for the prediction of bankruptcy are indicators such as interest coverage ratio, liquidity ratios, the value of accounts receivable, the amount of long-term debt.

In times of recession, companies are going bankrupt who had not accumulated sufficient reserves to survive the long sales decline. Bankruptcy in these circumstances is caused by insufficient cash flow, lack of reliable relations with creditors and higher-than-normal levels of accounts receivable and inventory. The most useful for predicting bankruptcy in the recession are factors such as capitalization8, net cash flows9, liquidity9, stockturn10, accounts receivable turnover11.

Thus, the addition to the model of macroeconomic parameters can improve its predictive ability. In addition, there are other approaches to improve the predictive accuracy, especially in the early stages of the bankruptcy process. First, is the conversion of financial indicators, such as average values ??are identified and trendy12 volatility13. Second, conducted multivariate logit analysis, in which data for several years prior to the bankruptcy to be used to predict not only the fact of bankruptcy, but also determine the time when it happens. Third, you can increase the accuracy of the models, if the analysis takes into account the difference stages of the bankruptcy process.

Consider a typical bankruptcy process, characterized by the deterioration of its performance. It is assumed that the analyzed company is not a newly created (see Figure 1).

The line in Figure 1 illustrates the above process is divided into four stages. The initial stage is characterized by a partial reduction of certain financial ratios. However, the performance of the company is no different from that of other successful companies, so the use of statistical methods for the classification of companies do not bear any results. This stage can be identified as a result of deteriorating, the emergence of negative financial results. Negative differences observed throughout the year, are often not large enough to significantly affect the overall trend indicators. However, at the initial stage of bankruptcy can improve the predictive accuracy of the models, if you include it in the temporary difference indicators.

Next to the initial phase of the next intermediate. It is characterized by a slow decline, or neutrality of almost all financial indicators. Indicators of the company at this stage will deteriorate continuously, so the overall trend will be negative. Consequently, at the intermediate stage of bankruptcy model accuracy is improved by including trend indicators.

For the third (final stage) of the bankruptcy process is characteristic deterioration of the company to a very low level. This means that the level of financial performance at this stage is so low that they can be used to classify the companies to "bankrupt" and "not bankrupt". At this stage, the inclusion in the statistical model of the temporary differences and trend indicators do not lead to a significant improvement in the accuracy of forecasts.

The fourth stage of the process is final. Event that separates the third stage of production from the fourth, is the publication of the last report to the recognition of the bankrupt. At the end of the final stage performance of the company deteriorated so much that it is insolvent. [5] From what we can conclude:



In the identification stage of the bankruptcy process, there are two problems.

First, the various companies of the bankruptcy takes different amounts of time, so if the models as the dependent variable, use the company's status (bankruptcy / non-bankruptcy), the different time periods prior to the bankruptcy lead to poor predictive properties of the model. Projection results improved when the dependent variable is used not predicted status of the company (bankruptcy / non-bankruptcy), and the time until the bankruptcy.

Second, the character of the bankruptcy process is different for different companies. Lines 1, 2 and 3na figure illustrates three possible types of bankruptcy. Line 2 describes the performance of the constant unsuccessful company. They are low even for a few years before the bankruptcy. Line 3 is characterized by abrupt bankruptcy process. The company shows good or excellent results up to the third stage of bankruptcy, when there is a sharp drop in performance.

The more different types of bankruptcy proceedings the companies included in the analyzed sample of the lower predictive ability of standardized models used in its various stages.

To identify the state of the company, as a rule, are consistently applied models developed for different stages of bankruptcy. The table shows the eight possible combinations of warning signals for bankruptcy. "Plus" sign indicates that the application of the model identified the warning signals of a possible bankruptcy. "Minus" means that these signals have not been identified. [4]

Table №1:

Interpretation of results
	Model based on the negative temporary differences	Model based on a negative trend	Model based on financial coefficients
Early warning signals (A few years before the bankruptcy)
1	_	_	_	The company is not bankrupt
2	+	_	_	Initial stage of bankruptcy
3	+	+	_	The transition from the initial stage to the intermediate
4	_	+	_	An intermediate stage of bankruptcy
Recent alarms (Little time to spare before the bankruptcy)
5	+	_	+	The transition from the initial stage to the final stage of bankruptcy (of type 1)
6	_	+	+	Transition from the intermediate stage to the final stage of bankruptcy
7	_	_	+	The final stage of the bankruptcy, the company is constantly bad ranking
8	+	+	+	The final stage of the bankruptcy (the company with critical low rates)

Minus three, corresponding to the first position of the table, testifies to the fact that it is not detected warning signals of a possible bankruptcy. Plus three in the last eight positions of the table show that the company is in the final stages of bankruptcy.

In conclusion, we note that to improve the accuracy of predictive models of bankruptcy is necessary, first, to draw attention to the impact of macroeconomic factors on the company, and secondly, to take into account the difference stages of the bankruptcy process to use the types of models in order to assess what stage of bankruptcy is company, in the third, for the transformation of financial indicators and multivariate logit analysis. [4]

1.4 The main methods of preventing bankruptcy

In developed countries, the potential bankrupts are washed out of scope before the official finding of this "status." For example, in France, there is a special "system alert", warning of economic partners about symptoms of the "disease."

Control monitoring bankruptcy of enterprises is formed at the macro level data collection and calculation of state enterprises, the emergence of bankruptcy allows you to diagnose, monitor trends and dynamics of change, and on this basis to make better management decisions for the region and the country as a whole.

The objective necessity of monitoring in this area is necessary as previously used in planning and distribution methods of economic analysis and forecasting almost stopped working. There was a need to establish an adequate system of modern problems of studying and managing complex processes, including the failure of businesses. This takes into account the experience of many other countries in this field. It is very different. So, UK legislation considers the debtor's point of view, explore the possibility of the return of the money lenders. Consequence of filing for bankruptcy is the sale of the company's property. The U.S. and Japanese law, by contrast, aims to rehabilitate the debtor allowed all sorts of ways, including giving him some assistance. In France prefer to timely warn bankruptcy, rather than treat it.

In our country, monitoring is carried out by order of the Russian Federal Service for cases of not-being, and financial health "On the introduction of monitoring the financial condition of the organization and taking into account their ability to pay" from 31.03.1999. For this purpose, a system management bankruptcy of enterprises, it includes the following elements:

1. Participants in the system, which include the company bankrupt, its creditors, the government, labor groups, the head of the debtor, trustee in bankruptcy, (interim manager, administrative manager, the external manager, administrator), the arbitral tribunal, investors, debtors, self-regulatory organization of arbitration managers;

2. State regulation:

* legal (legislative, methodological, informational) support;

* tax regulations;

* Restructuring - removal of non-core business enterprise objects selected independently functioning elements of the business or the sale (in accordance with the Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of 22.05.1998, №476 "On measures to improve the efficiency of the bankruptcy proceedings");

* Training of arbitration managers;

* financial and credit policy of the state, expressed in financial support on a grant basis under the terms of soft loans vital to economic enterprises in accordance with the Regulations on the provision of public financial support for insolvent companies and the use of the federal budget, sectoral and inter-budget funds for the reorganization or liquidation of insolvent companies (Annex №2 to the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation;

* Social protection of employees of the bankrupt, jobs for them, re-payment of benefits. (Adjusted in accordance with the Regulations on the organization of work to promote employment in the mass release, approved by the RF Government of 05.02.1993 №99);

* methodological support to the diagnosis of enterprises, bankruptcy prevention, and rehabilitation in the event of its occurrence.

3. System of state authorities and services at the federal and regional levels, to ensure government regulation.

4. Management principles of bankruptcy:

* a legal framework of business relations in the bankruptcy;

* Reduce the effect of state and administration in bankruptcy, ie maintenance of a democratic approach to the disposition of the debtor;

* Provide honest debtor to resume its activities;

* the introduction of measures of security systems in bankruptcy;

* Establishment of measures to revive the business;

* Protection from the effects of the company disputes, lawsuits to speed up his break;

* preservation of promising businesses with temporary financial difficulties;

* protect the interests of all bankruptcies, the estranged priority to the interests of creditors;

* equitable distribution of the estate, which is all the property of the debtor, who at the time of opening of bankruptcy proceedings and subject to sale.

Thus, Russia has a powerful system of prevention bankruptcy at the macro level, which absorbed the successful foreign experience of many developed countries. [4]

1.5 Anti-crisis management activities of enterprises

Basic procedures applicable to the debtor company are reflected in the Federal Law "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)".

The set of measures applicable to bankrupt enterprises under the law (Fig. 1) can be divided into groups: reorganization and liquidation.



By reorganizing procedures include: external property management, pre-trial rehabilitation, supervision, settlement agreement.

Externally managed property is a procedure applied to the business of the debtor in order to restore its solvency, which aims to continue the activities of the enterprise.

External control is introduced arbitration court decision at the request of the debtor, a creditor or the authorized body and is based on the outsourcing of the management of the debtor liquidator.

Prejudicial Readjustment - it measures to restore the solvency of the debtor to be taken by the owner of the property of the debtor - unitary enterprise, the founders (participants) of the debtor, the debtor's creditors and other parties in order to prevent bankruptcy.

Observation - bankruptcy applied to the debtor in order to safeguard the assets of the debtor, the analysis of the financial condition of the debtor, in which the register of creditors' claims, and the first meeting of creditors.

The amicable agreement - bankruptcy, used at any stage of the proceedings of bankruptcy to eliminate the production of the bankruptcy by reaching an agreement between the debtor and creditors.

Thus, the main difference of reorganization procedures is that their use does not result in termination of the debtor companies. The main task - to organize the withdrawal of an insolvent company, and ensure its normal functioning.

To liquidation procedures include: receivership, compulsory liquidation of the debtor on the arbitration award.

Liquidation of the debtor is in bankruptcy proceedings, which is determined by the liquidated assets of the debtor (bankrupt estate) to be distributed among the creditors in order of priority.

Bankruptcy proceedings - bankruptcy applied to the debtor is declared bankrupt, in order to meet the proportionate request of creditors. [5]

Law in the scheduling of payments to creditors. Out of turn covered the legal costs and labor costs of the administrator and the implementation of the bankrupt enterprise during his reign. First of all the requirements for citizens to repay the debt to pay for benefits for injury to life and health, then the payment of benefits, payroll persons working under labor agreements (contracts), and the payment of royalties. In the third stage, settlements with other creditors.

Creditors' claims on the obligations secured by the pledge of property of the debtor, are met by the value of the collateral mainly before other creditors, except for obligations to the creditors of the first and second stage, claims, which arose prior to the conclusion of the treaty pledge.

In contrast to the reorganization liquidation procedures lead to the termination of the enterprise.

In this regard, the procedures of the bankruptcy process in a broader sense, it is useful as a crisis procedures. In this case, the actual bankruptcy proceedings will serve as part of crisis management procedures.

The process of implementation of anti-crisis procedures in relation to the activities of debtor companies called crisis management process, which in a market economy is a managed process.

It is essential to distinguish the following two concepts.

Crisis management - a macroeconomic category, which is a measure of the impact of government designed to protect businesses from the crisis.

Anti-crisis management of the enterprise is a set of forms and methods of implementation of anti-crisis procedures for a particular debtor. Unlike monitoring this microeconomic category reflecting the relations of production at the plant level.

The mechanism of crisis management include: diagnosis of the feasibility and the financial condition of the company, the outlook for business development, marketing, crisis management investment policy, personnel management, production management, organization of liquidation.

Strategic actions is to analyze and assess the situation of the company, the study of the production capacity, the development of production programs, income policy, innovation, determination of the general concept of financial recovery. During the realization of this goal is defined practical significance of bankruptcy for all participants, which is manifested in the following:

* to society - formed structure of the economy to adapt to the market;

* for the population - made him the right products;

* creditors have a chance to save money;

* Staff enterprise creates or receives useful and appreciate the work.

Thus, the phenomenon of bankruptcy - the inevitable companion of the market economy, acting as a phisician, which controls the health of the enterprise and providing the conditions for further growth. [4]

2. Analysis of OJSC "Kirov Lighthouse" on the subject bancruptcy

2.1 General characteristics of OJSC "Kirov Plant "Mayak"

Open Joint Stock Company "Kirov Plant "Mayak" was founded in 1941.

Currently, it is one of the largest department of the industry conventional arms, ammunition and special chemicals Ministry of Industry of the Russian Federation, which produces a wide range of products of sophisticated military equipment to the means of self-defense products and economic purposes. The catalog contains products made of Kirov Plant "Lighthouse":

Consumer goods, including puls-kollektor to complete milking machines, stand for inspection and adjustment of milking machines, ventilation system " АЭРЭКО " hardware, form polypropylene.

Weapon: metered aerosol spray device "УДАР", "УДАР-М2".The high technical level, experienced and qualified staff ensure that products that meets modern requirements.

Today, the society is actively searching and development of future products, which correspond to the current level of science and technology and meet the needs of the market.

2.2 Calculation of the probability of bankruptcy as a discriminant function

To compute the probability of bankruptcy is required financial statements and, more specifically, we need a specific section called "Profit and Loss" presented below: