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American University of Central Asia

Migration in Kazakhstan

20 Years of Independence

Student: Ernistof Kairat

Professor: Konstants L. A.

Bishkek 2012

Content

Introduction

External Migration in Kazakhstan

Migration in Kazakhstan during 1991-2004

Migration in Kazakhstan during 2004-2010

Internal Migration in Kazakhstan

Conclusion

Bibliography

Appendix 1

Appendix 2

Introduction

Migration always was one of the most important sources of population for individual countries and continents, it has a significant impact on labor supply in labor markets, changing the ethnic and sex and age structure of population of some states, and it is closely related to flows of capital and entrepreneurs.

The Human Capital Theory explains the reasons of migration to make analysis of worker mobility more predictable. So, it predicts that migration will flow from poor area to the areas where opportunities and earnings are better. Moreover it says that migration is higher among young and better-educated people. Also The Human Capital Theory clearly predicts that as costs of migration rises, the flow migrants will decrease. Here I list the most important predictions of the theory which I use to explain Kazakhstan's migration flows.

Kazakhstan is the 9th largest country in the world with population about 16 million. For Kazakhstan pay a lot of attention to migration in recent times because it has very big demographic problem. Since independence of Kazakhstan there started new migration dynamics. As we know migration could be divided into external and internal. Kazakhstan's external migration for the period of independence could be considered in two stages: first is outflow after collapse of USSR for the period 1991-2004 and second inflow of ethnic Kazakhs for the period 2004-2010. Compare to external migration internal migration in Kazakhstan was stable. From 1991 till 2010 internal migration didn't exceed more than 450000 people per year.

In this paper it is analyzed the external and internal migration in Kazakhstan for the period of 1991-2010. It was found that the human capital theory was proved by the statistics from Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Migration in Kazakhstan as in the theory is determined by economic factors, ?rst of all income: people are more likely to leave regions where incomes are low and more likely to move to regions with a higher income level. Furthermore, mobility is larger between more populated regions. Distance has a strong negative impact on migration, indicating high migration related costs and risks.

The rest part of paper is structured as follow: Section 2 describes external migration in Kazakhstan. Section 3 presents internal migration in Kazakhstan and the last Section 4 conclude.

External Migration in Kazakhstan

External migration in Kazakhstan for last years is positive and in 2010 the balance of migration is accounted for 15465 people. The immigration to Kazakhstan for 2010 is 41996 people and emigration from Kazakhstan for 2010 is 26531 people. External migration in Kazakhstan is divided into two big parts. First part considers period from 1991-2004 and the second part considers period from 2004-2010.

migration kazakhstan human capital

Migration in Kazakhstan during 1991-2004

The First Half of 90s

In the first half of the 1990s there was big flow of nationalism generated by the processes of the country's sovereignty that was particularly noticeable at the household level. Nationalism was a trigger of big wave of emigration from Kazakhstan. It was largely provoked, and then stepped up shock reaction of Russian-speaking population, and became one of the most important factors in a powerful wave of emigration from Kazakhstan.

The major causes of out-migration in Germany, is listed below:

1) Higher standard of living in Germany;

2) Historical, cultural, ethnic, kinship ties, which are determined is still quite numerous German population of Kazakhstan, formed in 1940-1950s.;

3) The Government of Germany promoted the returning of ethnic Germans to their historic homeland in the 1980s.;

4) Formed in Germany large "Diaspora of the Soviet Germans" - immigrants from the Soviet Union and then from the CIS countries. On the basis of the "diaspora" have formed fairly stable migration networks. “Diaspora” promotes migration to Germany even now and makes easy adaptation of immigrants.

Factors determining the nature of the migration to Russia are much different from the mentioned above.

1) The most powerful wave of out-migration from Kazakhstan to Russia formed the Soviet Union's collapse. Shock reaction of the population has led to a powerful flow of migration of the first half of the 1990s.;

2) Conservation of the extensive kinship, friendship, business connections, which are formed on the basis of extensive migration networks, which, on the one hand, facilitate the adaptation of migrants in Russia, irrevocable, and the other - are an important basis for the temporary migration;

3) The nature of nation-building in Kazakhstan: http://www3.u-toyama.ac.jp/cfes/horie/CAMMIC-J/Publications_files/CAMMIC-WP6.pdf

The Second Half of 90s

For the second half of 1990s the situation in the sphere of interethnic relations in the country has stabilized significantly. The contradictions that are often arisen at the household level, gradually disappear, as determined from the one side, the position of government, but on the other - the gradual stabilization of the socio-economic situation in the republic. However, the national question, has moved from household level into the general context of public policy, to put it in the actual restriction to access the Russian speaking population into the politic and big business. The restrictions were made through the requirement of knowledge of the state the Kazakh language and through the familial clan networks.

The compensation for these limitations was more or less equal opportunities in small and medium businesses (SME) and in the public sector. All these actions in SME and public sector by Russian speaking population was supported by rapid economic growth of living standards in the late 1990s - early 2000s., this led to the formation of a kind of balance between a sufficiently high level and quality of life in the country, and some restrictions because of national policy. To a large extent a consequence of achieving such a balance has been a rapid collapse of out-migration to Russia in the late 1990s - early 2000s.

Thus, international migration to Kazakhstan in the second half of the 90s had a substitution character. As a result of influx of people from Central Asian countries they replaced an outflow of Kazakh citizens in Russia and Germany. Also it is noticed that the process of substitution of population decline, but not its quality.

Migration in Kazakhstan during 2004-2010

The migration situation in Kazakhstan in 2002-2005 has significant changes. Formed in 2004 the positive balance of external migration in 2005 increased by more than 8 times and has reached 22,668 people. http://www.stat.kz/publishing/20111/KazNezav.pdf Despite the fact that in absolute terms, it is not yet large, positive momentum in the last 5-6 years can be traced quite clearly. As a result, the country's population is gradually increasing.

From 2005-2006 there is rapid increase of the existing balance and it is fixed maximum immigration rate 33,061 people. It is related to governmental programs as “oralman” that aims to return ethnics Kazakhs to their historical homeland.

After 2006 migration in Kazakhstan has decreasing tendency till 2008. Experts explain it by the banking crisis of 2007 in Kazakhstan, which began as a result of the crisis in mortgage lending in the U.S., which led to a rapid increase in inflation, the slowdown of the economy. In turn, this led to a marked decline in the level and quality of life of Kazakhstan.

Internal Migration in Kazakhstan

Intercensal period 1999-2009 is not only an increase in the number of internal migrants, but also the ratio of inter-regional and intraregional migration in the overall migration process.

Interregional migration in the intercensal period 1989-1999 accounted for the vast majority - 92% of the country, the migration within the region - only 8%. In 1999-2009 interregional migration has is - 42% of intraregional - 58%. The share of migrants traveling within the region grew by 7 times. Every second of the migrant the results of the last census - people who migrate within the region. http://rudocs.exdat.com/docs/index-380768.html

The reason of internal migration is connected with the decline of agriculture and rural regions, disproportionate development of the regions of the country. http://vestnik.kazntu.kz/files/newspapers/36/1068/1068.pdf According to M. Asanbaeva, vice-President of the Kazakhstan Center for Humanities and political situation, "Internal migration of population of Kazakhstan - a natural process caused by the unresolved issues in a complex socio-economic development regions”.

Conclusion

In this paper it was analyzed the external and internal migration in Kazakhstan for the period of 1991-2010. The external migration was considered in two steps before 2000 year and after. It was made because in 90s the balance of migration was negative and the reasons were similar. After 90s the tendency of migration was upward and in 2004 became positive. After all analysis it was found that the human capital theory was proved by the statistics from Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

So, in the first half of 90s Germans and Russians leave Kazakhstan for better opportunities in their historical homeland, it was one of the reasons. Also nationalism in those years gave more reasons for these two ethnics leave the country. Moreover even after 90s there was accepted public policy that required knowledge of the state Kazakh language which makes life of Russian speaking population more difficult.

The positive balance of migration after 90s exactly in 2004 is the reason of governmental programs which were aimed to return ethnic Kazakhs into the historical homeland. In 2006 there was achieved a maximum balance of migration for the independent years of Kazakhstan (33,041 people). After 2006 the tendency of migration became downward till 2008, as Agency of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan says it was the result of banking crisis in Kazakhstan in 2007 (1,300 people). From 2009 external migration started its' recovery and in 2010 it is fixed on 15,465 people.

For external migration we can conclude that now there is no large outflow of Russians and Germans as it was in 90s however the balance of migration for these ethnics is negative. But in whole the migration stabilize after 90s and became positive.

The internal migration in Kazakhstan for 1991-2010 is the same as it was for everybody 100 years ago. And as Human Capital theory predicts that young and better educated people strive for better opportunities in Kazakhstan people from rural areas strive to urban areas. However for 2011 rural population is 40% of total population probably it could be explain with Human Capital Theory that in the poorest places with lower levels of wealth, education and skills - there is small amount of people whose willingness to move is high.

Bibliography

1. Barbara Dietz, Kseniia Gatskova, and Achim Schmillen. “Migration and Remittances in Kazakhstan: First Evidence from a Household Survey” Arbeitsbereich Wirtschaft, Migration und Integration Working Papers No. 304. Nov 2011. 30 Mar 2012

2. Агентство Республики Казахстан по Статистике. «Казахстан за годы независимости 1991-2010» Статистический сборник 2011. Mar 30 2012

3. Агентство Республики Казахстан по Статистике. «Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан.» Отчет 2009. Mar 30 2012

4. Агентство Республики Казахстан по Статистике. «Регионы Казахстана в 2007 году.» Mar 30 2012

5. Агентство Республики Казахстан по Статистике. «Регионы Казахстана в 2011 году.» Mar 30 2012

6. Константин Григоричев. “Современная Миграция из Казахстана” CAMMIC Working Papers No.6. 2008. Mar 30 2012. <http://www3.u-toyama.ac.jp/cfes/horie/CAMMIC-J/Publications_files/CAMMIC-WP6.pdf>.

Appendix 1

External Migration

Source: Казахстан за годы независимости. <http://www.stat.kz/publishing/20111/KazNezav.pdf> My own calculation

Source: Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. http://www.stat.kz/publishing/Pages/Analiticheskie_materiali.aspx

Figure 5 The structure of emigration in the context of ethnicity for 1999 -2008.,%

Source: Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. <http://www.stat.kz/publishing/Pages/Analiticheskie_materiali.aspx>

Source: Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. <http://www.stat.kz/publishing/Pages/Analiticheskie_materiali.aspx>

Figure 7 External migration by ethnic group: Russian 1999-2008., Pers.

Source: Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. http://www.stat.kz/publishing/Pages/Analiticheskie_materiali.aspx

Source: Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. <http://www.stat.kz/publishing/Pages/Analiticheskie_materiali.aspx>

Source: Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. http://www.stat.kz/publishing/Pages/Analiticheskie_materiali.aspx

Source: Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. http://www.stat.kz/publishing/Pages/Analiticheskie_materiali.aspx

Source: Анализ текущего учета миграционных процессов в Республике Казахстан. <http://www.stat.kz/publishing/Pages/Analiticheskie_materiali.aspx>

Appendix 2

Internal Migration

Source: Казахстан за годы независимости. <http://www.stat.kz/publishing/20111/KazNezav.pdf> My own calculation

Source: Регионы Казахстана в 2007 году. <http://www.stat.kz/publishing/Pages/Archives_2008.aspx> My own calculation.

Source: Казахстан за годы независимости. <http://www.stat.kz/publishing/20111/KazNezav.pdf>

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